SIMPLIFYING MARKET ACCESS: A NEW CONFIDENCE-BASED INTERFACE

Florian Teschner and David Rothschild

Journal of Prediction Markets, 2012, vol. 6, issue 3, 27-41

Abstract: Markets are a strong instrument for aggregating dispersed information, yet there are flaws. Markets are too complex for some users, they fail to capture massive amounts of their users’ relevant information, and they suffer from some individual-level biases. Based on recent research in polling environments, we design a new market interface that captures both a participant’s point estimate and confidence. The new interface lowers the barrier to entry, asks market’s implicit question more directly, and helps reduce known biases. We further utilize a novel market rule that supplements the interface with its simplicity. Thus, we ?nd that market participants using our new interface: provide meaningful information and are more likely to submit pro?table orders than using a standard market interface.

JEL-codes: L83 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
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