The Relationship between Sportsbook Volume, Forecast Accuracy, and Market Efficiency: The NFL and NCAA Football

Rodney Paul, Andrew Weinbach and Kenneth Small

Journal of Prediction Markets, 2014, vol. 8, issue 2, 29-42

Abstract: Using betting market volume data for the NFL and NCAA Football, we examine the role of betting volume as it relates to bettor biases, forecast accuracy, and volume-based betting market strategies. We find that betting volume has a statistically significant effect on the percentage bet on the favorite, but its impact is different between the two levels of football. Increased betting volume was shown to not have an impact on forecast accuracy in the sports. Simple betting simulations revealed that underdogs win more than implied by efficiency in low-volume NFL games, but other strategies did not reject market efficiency.

Keywords: Betting; NFL; Volume; Market Efficiency; Bettor Biases (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: L83 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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