Financial Binary Betting, Styles, Valuations and Deductions from Data

Peter Oliver
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Peter Oliver: Nottingham University Business School

Journal of Prediction Markets, 2007, vol. 1, issue 2, 127-146

Abstract: A relatively new form of financial spread betting, the binary bet, has become popular. Part of the popularity of this style of bet, from the gambler's point of view, is undoubtedly due to the simplicity and transparency of the contracts. The fact that these bets are free at the time they are taken is an added inducement. For the bet provider, as long as the correct buy and sell levels are maintained during the betting period and the betting frequency on any contract is high, it is again relatively simple to ensure a known income from the operation. Binary spread bets are examples of financial derivatives and the standard methods used in that field can be used to deduce the parameters that should apply. This gives useful information to the gamblers in telling them how much they are paying for the bet. Watching how the quotes are moving in time can also inform how the gambling community is behaving and what the average view of the outcome is. A variety of types of binary bets are valued and in many cases it is possible to derive analytic formulas. These can be applied to time series data that are acquired from quotes and used to deduce information about the bets held by a provider and the market expectations of the community.

Date: 2007
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