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L'impact des chocs externes sur et à l'intérieur de la zone euro: les enseignements d'un modèle vectoriel autorégressif structurel

Jean-Baptiste Gossé and Cyriac Guillaumin ()

Economie & Prévision, 2010, vol. n° 195-196, issue 4, 15-33

Abstract: This article studies the impact on Europe of the main external shocks that occurred in the?2000s, such as rising oil prices, the fall in the US interest rate, stock market bubbles in the United States, and rising global imbalances. We estimate an SVAR model with exogeneity constraints, together with contemporary and long-term restrictions, in order to measure the impact of these shocks on the euro area and its member countries, as well as on the United Kingdom. The findings show that external shocks during the?2000s help to explain Europe?s relatively sluggish growth, the appreciation of the euro, and widening current account deficits within the euro area.

Keywords: current account imbalances; euro area; structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models; exogeneity assumption (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010
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Journal Article: L’impact des chocs externes sur et à l’intérieur de la zone euro: les enseignements d’un modèle vectoriel autorégressif structurel (2010) Downloads
Working Paper: L'impact des chocs externes sur et à l'intérieur de la zone euro: les enseignements d'un modèle vectoriel autorégressif structurel (2010)
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