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L'impact des chocs externes sur et à l'intérieur de la zone euro: les enseignements d'un modèle vectoriel autorégressif structurel

Jean-Baptiste Gossé and Cyriac Guillaumin ()

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Abstract: This article studies the impact on Europe of the main external shocks that occurred in the 2000s, such as rising oil prices, the fall in the US interest rate, stock market bubbles in the United States, and rising global imbalances. We estimate an SVAR model with exogeneity constraints, together with contemporary and long-term restrictions, in order to measure the impact of these shocks on the euro area and its member countries, as well as on the United Kingdom. The findings show that external shocks during the 2000s help to explain Europe's relatively sluggish growth, the appreciation of the euro, and widening current account deficits within the euro area.

Keywords: crise économique; euro; modèle; modélisation; zone euro; modèle VAR; choc externe (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00739915
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Published in Economie et Prévision, Minefi - Direction de la prévision, 2010, pp.15-33

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Journal Article: L'impact des chocs externes sur et à l'intérieur de la zone euro: les enseignements d'un modèle vectoriel autorégressif structurel (2010) Downloads
Journal Article: L’impact des chocs externes sur et à l’intérieur de la zone euro: les enseignements d’un modèle vectoriel autorégressif structurel (2010) Downloads
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