Des équilibres instables

Christophe Blot, Marion Cochard, Sabine Le Bayon, Mathieu Plane and Danielle Schweisguth

Revue de l'OFCE, 2007, vol. 101, issue 2, 165-191

Abstract: We analyse the issue of global imbalances and share the view that the US current account deficit result from economic developments inside the United States but also from the increase in saving in Asian countries. The globalization process helped financing deficits by significantly lowering financial costs. Interest rates remain at low levels for several years implying a rise in the debt of firms and households. In a world of growing interdependences, the economy is now more exposed to a sudden correction that may come from exchange rates, bonds, shares or housing markets. It would then lead to a systemic financial crisis and to a world recession. But the adjustment could be easier with Japan and the euro area growing faster. The reduction in China?s large surplus would also help reducing the US current account deficit. JEL codes: E210, E440, F320.

JEL-codes: E21 E44 F32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2007
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Related works:
Working Paper: Des équilibres instables (2007)
Working Paper: Des équilibres instables (2007)
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