Des équilibres instables

Danielle Schweisguth (), Mathieu Plane, Christophe Blot (), Marion Cochard () and Sabine Le Bayon ()
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Danielle Schweisguth: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Christophe Blot: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Sabine Le Bayon: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po

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Abstract: We analyse the issue of global imbalances and share the view that the US current account deficit result from economic developments inside the United States but also from the increase in saving in Asian countries. The globalization process helped financing deficits by significantly lowering financial costs. Interest rates remain at low levels for several years implying a rise in the debt of firms and households. In a world of growing interdependences, the economy is now more exposed to a sudden correction that may come from exchange rates, bonds, shares or housing markets. It would then lead to a systemic financial crisis and to a world recession. But the adjustment could be easier with Japan and the euro area growing faster. The reduction in China's large surplus would also help reducing the US current account deficit.

Keywords: Épargne nationale; Investissement; Finances publiques (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2007-04
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03462074
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Published in Revue de l'OFCE, 2007, 101, pp.165 - 191. ⟨10.3917/reof.101.0165⟩

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Related works:
Journal Article: Des équilibres instables (2007)
Working Paper: Des équilibres instables (2007)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03462074

DOI: 10.3917/reof.101.0165

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