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Import Disruptions, Exhaustible Resources, and Intertemporal Security of Supply

Charles Lindsey ()

Canadian Journal of Economics, 1989, vol. 22, issue 2, 340-63

Abstract: How rapidly should a country exploit a nonrenewable resource if supplementary imports are insecure? With lags in domestic supply adjustment, speeding up extraction will reduce near-term losses in a disruption, but reserves will be depleted more quickly, leading to greater future import dependence. Using a stochastic linear-quadratic model of resource depletion, it is shown that with price rationing of world supply in a disruption, production during undisrupted periods should be speeded up unless costs are rising rapidly with cumulative extraction. With quantity rationing, production should also be speeded up unless the domestic economy is currently nearly self-sufficient.

Date: 1989
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