Opinion Polls and Canadian Bond Yields During the 1995 Quebec Referendum

David Johnson () and Darren Mcllwraith

Canadian Journal of Economics, 1998, vol. 31, issue 2, 411-426

Abstract: Opinion poll announcements during the 1995 Quebec referendum campaign that increased the likelihood of Quebec sovereignty substantially increased the spread on Quebec bond yields over both Canada and Ontario bond yields. Announcements that increased the likelihood of Quebec sovereignty also increased the spread between Government of Canada real return bonds and Government of the United Kingdom real return bonds but had only a weak effect on expected inflation in Canada. Expected inflation is proxied by the spread between nominal and real return bonds.

Date: 1998
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