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Detecting Looming Vetoes: Getting the European Parliament’s Consent in Trade Agreements

Marie Peffenköver and Johan Adriaensen
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Marie Peffenköver: Independent Researcher, Belgium
Johan Adriaensen: Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences, Maastricht University, The Netherlands

Politics and Governance, 2021, vol. 9, issue 3, 74-84

Abstract: Since the implementation of the Lisbon Treaty, the European Parliament wields the power of consent over international (trade) agreements, enabling it to threaten a veto. Due to the extensive financial and reputational costs associated with a veto, the European Commission (hereinafter Commission) was expected to read these threats effectively. However, the Commission’s responses to such threats have varied greatly. Building on a fine-grained causal mechanism derived from information processing theory and an extensive process-tracing analysis of seven free trade agreements post-Lisbon, we explain why the Commission has responded differently to looming vetoes. Our analysis reveals that the variation in Commission responses derives from imperfections in its information-processing system, the ‘early-warning system,’ which had to be adapted to the new institutional equilibrium post-Lisbon. Because of this adaption process, factors exogenous to the parliamentary context (‘externalities’) as well as internal uncertainties (‘internalities’) add constant unpredictability to the Commission’s reading of the European Parliament.

Keywords: EU trade policy; European Commission; European Parliament; information processing theory; trade agreements; veto (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cog:poango:v9:y:2021:i:3:p:74-84

DOI: 10.17645/pag.v9i3.4014

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