Valence Secession? Voting Shocks and Independence Support in Scotland

Robert Liñeira
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Robert Liñeira: School of Social and Political Sciences, University of Glasgow, UK

Politics and Governance, 2021, vol. 9, issue 4, 399-411

Abstract: National identifications, cues from political actors, and cost-benefit calculations have been pointed as the main determinants of secession preferences. However, a recent surge in independence support in Scotland suggests that abrupt political changes may also affect these preferences: Brexit and the differentiated management of the Covid-19 pandemic by the UK and the Scottish governments are named as causes of the first independence sustained majority registered by polling in Scotland. In this article, I discuss how voting shocks may affect the levels of support for independence, revise the evidence that sustains these claims, and analyse how they have changed the profile of the pro-independence voter. The effect of these questions has substantial implications for a possible second independence referendum in Scotland, as well as for the broader debate on the sources of secession support.

Keywords: Brexit; Covid-19; pandemic; independence referendums; Scotland (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cog:poango:v9:y:2021:i:4:p:399-411

DOI: 10.17645/pag.v9i4.4571

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