From Empty Pews to Empty Cradles: Fertility Decline among European Catholics

Eli Berman, Laurence R. Iannaccone and Giuseppe Ragusa ()
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Laurence R. Iannaccone: Chapman University

JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, 2018, vol. 84, issue 2, 149-187

Abstract: Total fertility in the Catholic countries of Southern Europe has dropped to remarkably low rates (=1.4) despite continuing low rates female labor force participation and high historic fertility. We model three ways in which religion affects the demand for children – through norms, market wages, and childrearing costs. We estimate these effects using new panel data on church attendance and clergy employment for 13 European countries from 1960 to 2000, spanning the Second Vatican Council (1962–65). Using nuns per capita as a proxy for service provision, we estimate fertility effects on the order of 300 to 400 children per nun. Moreover, nuns outperform priests as a predictor of fertility, suggesting that changes in childrearing costs dominate changes in theology and norms. Reduced church attendance also predicts fertility decline, but only for Catholics, not for Protestants. Service provision and attendance complement each other, a finding consistent with club models of religion.

Keywords: Demand for children; Fertility decline; Religion; Vatican II; Identity; Club goods (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D71 H75 I00 J13 Z12 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018-06-01
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (14)

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https://doi.org/10.1017/dem.2017.22 (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: FROM EMPTY PEWS TO EMPTY CRADLES: FERTILITY DECLINE AMONG EUROPEAN CATHOLICS (2018)
Working Paper: From Empty Pews to Empty Cradles: Fertility Decline Among European Catholics (2012)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ctl:louvde:v:84:y:2018:i:2:p:149-187

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