From Empty Pews to Empty Cradles: Fertility Decline Among European Catholics

Eli Berman, Laurence Iannaccone () and Giuseppe Ragusa ()

No 18350, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: Catholic countries of Europe pose a demographic puzzle -fertility is unprecedentedly low (total fertility=1.3) despite low female labor force participation. We model three channels of religious effects on demand for children: through changing norms, reduced market wages, and reduced costs of childrearing. We estimate their effects using new panel data on church attendance and clergy employment for thirteen European countries from 1960-2000, spanning the Second Vatican Council (1962-65). Catholic theology is uniform across countries. Yet service varied considerably across countries and over time, especially before the Council, reflecting differences in Church provision of education, health, welfare and other social services. We use differential declines in service provision --measured by nuns/capita-- to identify its effect on fertility, controlling for secular trends. They are large: 300 to 400 children per nun. Reduced religiosity (measured by church attendance) has no effect for Protestants, but predicts fertility decline for Catholics. The data suggest that service provision and religiosity complement each other -a finding consistent with preferential provision of services to church attendees. Nuns outperform priests in predicting fertility, suggesting that the childrearing cost channel dominates theology and norms.

JEL-codes: H31 H41 I3 I38 J13 J4 Z12 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012-08
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dem and nep-eur
Note: CH LS PE
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (19)

Published as Eli BERMAN & Laurence R. IANNACCONE & Giuseppe RAGUSA, 2018. "From Empty Pews to Empty Cradles: Fertility Decline among European Catholics," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 84(2), pages 149-187, June.

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Journal Article: From Empty Pews to Empty Cradles: Fertility Decline among European Catholics (2018)
Journal Article: FROM EMPTY PEWS TO EMPTY CRADLES: FERTILITY DECLINE AMONG EUROPEAN CATHOLICS (2018)
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