Beyond Fractionalization: Mapping Ethnicity onto Nationalist Insurgencies

Lars-Erik Cederman and Luc Girardin

American Political Science Review, 2007, vol. 101, issue 1, 173-185

Abstract: This paper theorizes the link between ethnicity and conflict. Conventional research relies on the ethnolinguistic fractionalization index (ELF) to explore a possible causal connection between these two phenomena. However, such approaches implicitly postulate unrealistic, individualist interaction topologies. Moreover, ELF-based studies fail to articulate explicit causal mechanisms of collective action. To overcome these difficulties, we introduce the new index N* of ethnonationalist exclusiveness that maps ethnic configurations onto political violence. This formalization is confirmed statistically in regression analysis based on data from Eurasia and North Africa.

Date: 2007
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