News and Geolocated Social Media Accurately Measure Protest Size Variation

Anton Sobolev, M. Keith Chen, Jungseock Joo and Zachary C. Steinert-Threlkeld

American Political Science Review, 2020, vol. 114, issue 4, 1343-1351

Abstract: Larger protests are more likely to lead to policy changes than small ones are, but whether or not attendance estimates provided in news or generated from social media are biased is an open question. This letter closes the question: news and geolocated social media data generate accurate estimates of protest size variation. This claim is substantiated using cellphone location data from more than 10 million individuals during the 2017 United States Women’s March protests. These cellphone estimates correlate strongly with those provided in news media as well as three size estimates generated using geolocated tweets, one text-based and two based on images. Inferences about protest attendance from these estimates match others’ findings about the Women’s March.

Date: 2020
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