The 1914 Case*

Ole R. Holsti

American Political Science Review, 1965, vol. 59, issue 2, 365-378

Abstract: This paper will employ techniques of content analysis to examine some features of top-level communications between national policy makers during a momentous period of stress. It is concerned with the effects of stress upon: (1) the manner in which decision-makers perceive time as a factor in their formulation of policy; (2) the contrasting ways in which they view policy alternatives for their own nations, for their allies, and for their adversaries; and (3) the flow of communications among them. Specifically, the following hypotheses will be tested with data from the 1914 crisis leading up to the Great War in Europe: Hypothesis 1. As stress increases in a crisis situation: (a) time will be perceived as an increasingly salient factor in decision-making. (b) decision-makers will become increasingly concerned with the immediate rather than the distant future.

Date: 1965
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