Military Capabilities and Escalation: A Correction to Bueno de Mesquita, Morrow, and Zorick

M. Cristina Molinari

American Political Science Review, 2000, vol. 94, issue 2, 425-427

Abstract: Bueno de Mesquita, Morrow, and Zorick analyze the evolution of crises as a two-sided incomplete information game in order to illuminate the relationship between observable military capabilities and the escalation of a dispute to armed conflict. I show that an error in the derivation of the equilibria invalidates their conclusions, and I offer a few suggestions on how to model the evolution of crises as incomplete information games.

Date: 2000
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