Surviving Elections: Election Violence, Incumbent Victory and Post-Election Repercussions

Emilie M. Hafner-Burton, Susan D. Hyde and Ryan S. Jablonski

British Journal of Political Science, 2018, vol. 48, issue 2, 459-488

Abstract: It is often assumed that government-sponsored election violence increases the probability that incumbent leaders remain in power. Using cross-national data, this article shows that election violence increases the probability of incumbent victory, but can generate risky post-election dynamics. These differences in the consequences of election violence reflect changes in the strategic setting over the course of the election cycle. In the pre-election period, anti-incumbent collective action tends to be focused on the election itself, either through voter mobilization or opposition-organized election boycotts. In the post-election period, by contrast, when a favorable electoral outcome is no longer a possibility, anti-government collective action more often takes the form of mass political protest, which in turn can lead to costly repercussions for incumbent leaders.

Date: 2018
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