Postsocialist transition: an overall survey*

János Kornai

European Review, 1993, vol. 1, issue 1, 53-64

Abstract: The lecture outlines a conceptual framework for the analysis of changes in those countries going through the transformation from a socialist economy to a market economy. It takes a positive predictive approach. It describes seven tendencies which are very likely to apply.(1) Marketization replacing the command economy.(2) The evolution of the private sector—a broad new middle class will develop.(3) Reproduction of macrodisequilibria. The inherited imbalance, namely chronic and intensive shortage will be eliminated, but inflation, budget deficit, unemployment and foreign indebtedness will remain in various configurations.(4) Development of a constitutional state.(5) Development of democratic institutions.(6) The redefinition of a national community—which tendency might be accompanied by severe tensions and conflicts.(7) Unequal increase of welfare.Finally the paper discusses the role of academics in the process of transformation.

Date: 1993
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