The development of the industrial society

Hans G. Danielmeyer

European Review, 1997, vol. 5, issue 4, 371-381

Abstract: The modified new growth theory yields the growth trajectories and gross fixed capital formations of the US, Germany, Japan, Korea and China analytically in closed form. Growth is driven by the gap in relevant knowledge compared with the state of the art. Excellent quantitative agreement is obtained with only two fundamental economic parameters: the ‘maximum sustainable growth rate’ 0.16 p.a. corresponds to the generation gap of 25 years. It is not by chance that it is equal to the physical lifetime of our capital stock. The ‘skill parameter’ measures the overall ability of a country to achieve optimal growth. For the first time there is a good explanation for the long postwar periods of nearly linear growth as well as for the dynamic structural unemployment of Germany, and a fairly reliable prediction of the world's changing resource balance which might result from the development of China. Adam Smith's 1776 prediction is verified, that there can be no sustainable solution to the employment problem within the paradigm of the industrial society. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Date: 1997
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