Lead-Lag Relationships Between Pork Prices at the Retail, Wholesale, and Farm Levels

Steven E. Miller

Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 1980, vol. 12, issue 1, 73-76

Abstract: Knowledge of the lead-lag relationships among the retail, wholesale, and farm level prices of a livestock commodity is of obvious importance both in econometric model building and in evaluation of packers' and retailers' margins for that commodity. Though the lead-lag relationships for beef prices have been investigated in several previous studies (Barksdale et al.; Franzmann and Walker; King; Miller; National Commission on Food Marketing), the only known previous study of the lead-lag relationships for pork is that made by the National Commission on Food Marketing (hereafter abbreviated NCFM). As that study used data for 1962-1965, changes in the pork marketing system in subsequent years may have in turn occassioned changes in the lead-lag relationships. The changes in the pork marketing system include changes in market structure at the farm, packer, and retail levels, increased use of formula pricing, and the demise of terminal markets, among others. Also, as discussed hereafter, the statistical method used in the NCFM analysis of lead-lag relationships involved certain problems which may invalidate the conclusions drawn in that study.

Date: 1980
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