Performance of Risk-Income Models Outside the Original Data Set

Joseph Atwood, Larry J. Held, Glenn A. Helmers and Myles J. Watts

Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 1986, vol. 18, issue 2, 113-124

Abstract: Selected risk programming solutions (i.e., profit maximization, Target-MOTAD, and MOTAD) are tested in an economic environment outside the data set from which they were developed. Specifically, solutions are derived from either a longer 10-year (1965-74) or shorter 6-year estimation period (1969-74), and then, they are tested for consistent risk-income characteristics over a later 10-year period (1975-84). Risk solutions estimated from earlier periods perform well in the later test period in spite of different economic conditions between time periods. However, favorable performance may be related to the specific example used in this analysis. Further testing for other farm situations is needed before general conclusions can be reached.

Date: 1986
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