EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

Economic Criteria for Evaluating Commodity Price Forecasts

Jeffrey Dorfman and Christopher McIntosh

Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 1997, vol. 29, issue 2, 337-345

Abstract: Forecasts of economic time series are often evaluated according to their accuracy as measured by either quantitative precision or qualitative reliability. We argue that consumers purchase forecasts for the potential utility gains from utilizing them, not for their accuracy. Using Monte Carlo techniques to incorporate the temporal heteroskedasticity inherent in asset returns, the expected utility of a set of qualitative forecasts is simulated for corn and soybean futures prices. Monetary values for forecasts of various reliability levels are derived. The method goes beyond statistical forecast evaluation, allowing individuals to incorporate their own utility function and trading system into valuing a set of asset price forecasts.

Date: 1997
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5) Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/ ... type/journal_article link to article abstract page (text/html)

Related works:
Journal Article: ECONOMIC CRITERIA FOR EVALUATING COMMODITY PRICE FORECASTS (1997) Downloads
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cup:jagaec:v:29:y:1997:i:02:p:337-345_00

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics from Cambridge University Press Cambridge University Press, UPH, Shaftesbury Road, Cambridge CB2 8BS UK.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Keith Waters ().

 
Page updated 2021-05-15
Handle: RePEc:cup:jagaec:v:29:y:1997:i:02:p:337-345_00