Predicting Pork Supplies: An Application of Multiple Forecast Encompassing

Dwight R. Sanders and Mark Manfredo

Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 2004, vol. 36, issue 3, 605-615

Abstract: Conditional efficiency or forecast encompassing is tested among alternative pork production forecasts using the method proposed by Harvey and Newbold. One-, two-, and three-quarter ahead pork production forecasts made by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), the University of Illinois and Purdue University Cooperative Extension Service, and those produced by a univariate time series model are evaluated. The encompassing tests provide considerably more information about forecast performance than a simple pair-wise test for equality of mean squared errors. The results suggest that at a one-quarter horizon, the Extension service forecasts encompass the competitors, but at longer horizons, a composite forecast may provide greater accuracy.

Date: 2004
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