Risk Analysis of Tillage and Crop Rotation Alternatives with Winter Wheat

Jeffery Williams, Matthew J. Pachta, Kraig L. Roozeboom, Richard Llewelyn, Mark M. Claassen and Jason Bergtold

Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 2012, vol. 44, issue 4, 561-576

Abstract: The economic feasibility of soybeans, grain sorghum, and corn in annual rotation with winter wheat using reduced tillage and no-tillage systems in the Central Great Plains was evaluated, with continuous wheat and grain sorghum also analyzed. Net returns were calculated using simulated yield and price distributions based on historical yields, two historical annual price series, and 2011 costs. Stochastic Efficiency with Respect to a Function was used to determine the preferred strategies under various risk preferences. The no-till wheat-soybean and reduced-till wheat-soybean systems are the first and second most preferred, regardless of the level of risk aversion.

Date: 2012
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