Accuracy of Qualitative Forecasts of Farmland Values from the Federal Reserve's Land Value Survey
Christopher J. Zakrzewicz,
B Brorsen and
Brian Briggeman ()
Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 2013, vol. 45, issue 1, 159-170
This article determines the accuracy of quarterly land value forecasts provided by bankers through the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City's Survey of Agricultural Credit Conditions. Bankers' qualitative forecasts of up, down, or no change are compared against actual, self-reported changes in land values. A large proportion of bankers forecast no change. Despite this action, aggregates of bankers' qualitative forecasts help predict changing land values and forecast better than naÃ¯ve models. Thus, the forecasts in the survey are helpful in predicting land values.
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Journal Article: Accuracy of Qualitative Forecasts of Farmland Values from the Federal Reserve's Land Value Survey (2013)
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