Can Private Forecasters Beat the USDA? Analysis of Relative Accuracy of Crop Acreage and Production Forecasts

Olga Isengildina-Massa, Berna Karali and Scott H. Irwin
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Olga Isengildina Massa

Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 2020, vol. 52, issue 4, 545-561

Abstract: This study examines the accuracy of United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) crop Acreage and Production forecasts for corn, soybeans, and winter wheat relative to their private counterparts over 1970–2019. Our main findings suggest that USDA forecasts often had significantly smaller errors than their private counterparts. The accuracy of both USDA and private forecasts has improved over time, but the accuracy of USDA forecasts has improved more than that of private forecasts, maintaining the USDA’s relative accuracy advantage. The accuracy advantage of Prospective Plantings and Acreage reports highlights the importance of survey-based approaches used for these forecasts.

Date: 2020
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/ ... type/journal_article link to article abstract page (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cup:jagaec:v:52:y:2020:i:4:p:545-561_3

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics from Cambridge University Press Cambridge University Press, UPH, Shaftesbury Road, Cambridge CB2 8BS UK.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Kirk Stebbing ().