Bayesian Decision Strategies Applied to Production and Marketing Decisions for Cow-Calf Farms in the Shenandoah Area of Virginia

Y. C. Chiang, R. B. Jensen, D. E. Kenyon and R. G. Kline

Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 1974, vol. 6, issue 2, 15-23

Abstract: The main objective of this study is to derive economic strategies or decision rules for beef cow-calf farmers making production and marketing decisions under uncertain beef prices and pasture conditions. The problem analyzed relates to decisions concerning alternative beef systems for a 400-acre beef farm in the Shenandoah area of Virginia. At the beginning of the fall season, given the level of corn production and cow herd size, a beef farmer, faced with uncertain pasture conditions and uncertain feeder and slaughter prices for the coming year, must decide whether to sell his weaned calves or to keep them for sale later. At this time the farmer decides the amount of corn to be harvested as grain and as silage and the amount of corn to sell.

Date: 1974
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