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Use of Probabilistic Cash Flows in Analyzing Investments Under Conditions of Risk and Uncertainty*

James Richardson () and Harry P. Mapp

Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 1976, vol. 8, issue 2, 19-24

Abstract: Managers of business firms, large or small, farm or nonfarm, must make investment decisions under conditions of risk and uncertainty. However, in evaluating investments, the assumption of perfect knowledge has often been used to simplify the analysis. For example, an estimate of average annual net returns is frequently discounted into perpetuity to evaluate a real estate investment alternative. Capital budgeting literature suggests a number of approaches to evaluating alternative investments. However, use of concepts such as the payback period, average rate of return, internal rate of return and net present value embodies the assumption of perfect knowledge.

Date: 1976
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