A Self-Generating Model of Long-Swings for the American Economy, 1860–1940

Charles M. Franks and William W. McCormick

The Journal of Economic History, 1971, vol. 31, issue 2, 295-343

Abstract: In this article we investigate the nature of long-term fluctuations (commonly called long-swings or Kuznets cycles) in the general level of activity of the American economy over the period between the Civil War and the Great Depression. We conclude that a stable socio-economic structure of long-term economic change was in existence over this entire period. This structure defines a concurrence of relationships between certain economic and demographic variables which in combination determined the dynamic pattern by which economic growth proceeded. Our findings should be of interest to the economic historian studying the general process of economic growth in a capitalist economy.

Date: 1971
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