Explaining the Shift of Labor from Agriculture to Industry in the United States: 1869 to 1899

Frank Lewis

The Journal of Economic History, 1979, vol. 39, issue 3, 681-698

Abstract: This paper attempts to explain the reasons for the shift of labor from agriculture in the United States from 1869 to 1899. It focuses on the effects of productivity growth in agriculture and industry, and of increases in the supply of land (safety-valve theory). A two-sector general equilibrium model is used in the analysis. Many of the results hinge on whether the economy is assumed to be open or closed to foreign trade. In order to determine the appropriate specification, each issue is analyzed in terms of its equivalent counterfactual-conditional proposition. An important conclusion is that increases in agricultural productivity and the level of supply of land likely reduced the proportion of workers in agriculture even though the United States economy was open.

Date: 1979
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