A Compromise Estimate of German Net National Product, 1851–1913, and its Implications for Growth and Business Cycles

Carsten Burhop and Guntram Wolff

The Journal of Economic History, 2005, vol. 65, issue 3, 613-657

Abstract: We develop a compromise estimate of the German Net National Product for the years 1851–1913 based on four estimates from Hoffmann (1965) and Hoffmann and Müller (1959) by recalculating industrial production, investment, home and foreign capital income. Because differences remain during the early decades, we compute a weighted average compromise series. Economic activity is shown to be higher than the older estimates suggest. The average growth rate is lower. The average business cycle lasted five years, with high volatility in the early decades. The typical Gründerzeit pattern of boom then prolonged recession after 1873 can not be confirmed.

Date: 2005
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