Happily Ever After: Immigration, Natives’ Marriage, and Fertility

Michela Carlana and Marco Tabellini

The Journal of Economic History, 2025, vol. 85, issue 4, 1001-1039

Abstract: We study the effects of immigration on natives’ marriage, fertility, and family formation across U.S. cities between 1910 and 1930. Using a shift-share design, we find that natives living in cities that received more immigrants were more likely to marry, have children, and leave the parental house earlier. Our evidence suggests that immigration increased native men’s employment, thereby raising the supply of native “marriageable men.” We consider alternative channels—such as compositional changes among the natives, sex ratios, natives’ cultural reactions, and economic competition faced by native women. We conclude that none of them, alone, can explain our results.

Date: 2025
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