The Value Line Enigma: The Sum of Known Parts?

James Choi

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 2000, vol. 35, issue 3, 485-498

Abstract: The investment advice encapsulated in the Value Line Investment Survey's timeliness rankings is evaluated from 1965 to 1996 through time-series factor regressions, as well as by comparing recommendations to benchmark portfolios corresponding to their size, book-to-market, and momentum characteristics. In addition, recommendations that have experienced recent earnings surprises are purged to eliminate the effects of post-earnings announcement drift. There is evidence that Value Line recommendations exhibit performance beyond what is predicted by existing models of expected return. However, once transactions costs have been accounted for, it is doubtful profitable abnormal returns could have been realized.

Date: 2000
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