A dynamic analysis of the effects on pensioners’ welfare of social security reforms

Patricia Peinado () and Felipe Serrano

Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, 2012, vol. 11, issue 1, 71-87

Abstract: The aim of this paper is to analyze the dynamic effects of the different parametric reforms oriented to reach the financial balance of public pension systems on the well-being of the retired population. Using the Spanish social security system as a case study, a duration analysis is implemented to look for a causal relationship and then estimate separately the effects of an effective retirement age delay and a replacement rate reduction as well as the combined effect of these two measures. We also estimate the effects of a delay on the reforms. We find that a change in the effective retirement age would have positive effects on the individual welfare of retired population, while a reduction of the replacement rate would diminish it. The combined effect of the two measures would finally translate into a welfare lost of the retired population. The delay on the reforms implies higher welfare loss (to the affected generations) than the analyzed reforms.

Date: 2012
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