Wine Cycles in South Africa

Nick Vink, Willem Boshoff, Johan Fourie and Rossouw van Jaarsveld ()

Journal of Wine Economics, 2018, vol. 13, issue 2, 182-198

Abstract: In this article, medium-run cycles in wine production in South Africa are extracted and related to similar cycles in real GDP per capita during the same period. In addition to removing noise in the historical data, smoothing out short-run fluctuations also eliminates the short-run impact on agricultural production due to idiosyncratic shocks such as weather events, wars, and vine diseases. By isolating the medium-run cycles, it is possible to verify the timing and duration of each cycle, matching it with the historical narrative. In this regard, a 300-year annual data series of South African wine production explains the evolution not only of one of the largest agricultural sectors, but of the South African economy in general. (JEL Classifications: C10, N57, Q10).

Date: 2018
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