THE SAHM RULE AND PREDICTING THE GREAT RECESSION ACROSS OECD COUNTRIES

David Blanchflower and Alex Bryson

National Institute Economic Review, 2023, vol. 264, 8-58

Abstract: We examine the start date of the Great Recession across OECD countries. The Sahm Rule identifies the start of recession in the US to the beginning of 2008 but in most other OECD countries it identifies the start after that identified by two successive falls in quarterly GDP. We establish our own rule for predicting recession using the fear of unemployment series to predict recession. We show a 10-point rise in the series compared to its previous 12 month low predicted the onset of the Great Recession in both the United States and Europe.

Date: 2023
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Working Paper: The Sahm Rule and Predicting the Great Recession Across OECD Countries (2021)
Working Paper: The Sahm Rule and Predicting the Great Recession Across OECD Countries (2021)
Working Paper: The Sahm Rule and Predicting the Great Recession Across OECD Countries (2021)
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