Defining and Modeling State-Dependent Dynamic Systems

Justin Esarey and Jacqueline H. R. DeMeritt

Political Analysis, 2014, vol. 22, issue 1, 61-85

Abstract: A state-dependent dynamic system is one in which (1) the marginal effect of x on y at time t () depends on the prior value of the dependent variable , and (2) the persistence of the dependent variable () depends on xt . We present a methodological strategy for dealing with state-dependent dynamic systems and demonstrate the consequences of ignoring state-dependence. As an applied example, we find evidence of state-dependence in the relationship between presidential approval and economic performance: high unemployment rates are most damaging to presidential approval among presidents with the highest initial approval ratings.

Date: 2014
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cup:polals:v:22:y:2014:i:01:p:61-85_01

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