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Political Analysis

1999 - 2023

From Cambridge University Press
Cambridge University Press, UPH, Shaftesbury Road, Cambridge CB2 8BS UK.

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Volume 31, issue 4, 2023

Introducing an Interpretable Deep Learning Approach to Domain-Specific Dictionary Creation: A Use Case for Conflict Prediction pp. 481-499 Downloads
Sonja Häffner, Martin Hofer, Maximilian Nagl and Julian Walterskirchen
Using Conjoint Experiments to Analyze Election Outcomes: The Essential Role of the Average Marginal Component Effect pp. 500-518 Downloads
Kirk Bansak, Jens Hainmueller, Daniel J. Hopkins and Teppei Yamamoto
Ordered Beta Regression: A Parsimonious, Well-Fitting Model for Continuous Data with Lower and Upper Bounds pp. 519-536 Downloads
Robert Kubinec
Measuring Swing Voters with a Supervised Machine Learning Ensemble pp. 537-553 Downloads
Christopher Hare and Mikayla Kutsuris
Automated Coding of Political Campaign Advertisement Videos: An Empirical Validation Study pp. 554-574 Downloads
Alexander Tarr, June Hwang and Kosuke Imai
Acquiescence Bias Inflates Estimates of Conspiratorial Beliefs and Political Misperceptions pp. 575-590 Downloads
Seth J. Hill and Margaret E. Roberts
When Correlation Is Not Enough: Validating Populism Scores from Supervised Machine-Learning Models pp. 591-605 Downloads
Michael Jankowski and Robert A. Huber
Ends Against the Middle: Measuring Latent Traits when Opposites Respond the Same Way for Antithetical Reasons pp. 606-625 Downloads
JBrandon Duck-Mayr and Jacob Montgomery
Creating and Comparing Dictionary, Word Embedding, and Transformer-Based Models to Measure Discrete Emotions in German Political Text pp. 626-641 Downloads
Tobias Widmann and Maximilian Wich
Bridging the Grade Gap: Reducing Assessment Bias in a Multi-Grader Class pp. 642-650 Downloads
Sean Kates, Tine Paulsen, Sidak Yntiso and Joshua A. Tucker
Recalibration of Predicted Probabilities Using the “Logit Shift”: Why Does It Work, and When Can It Be Expected to Work Well? pp. 651-661 Downloads
Evan T. R. Rosenman, Cory McCartan and Santiago Olivella
Topic Classification for Political Texts with Pretrained Language Models pp. 662-668 Downloads
Yu Wang
Mapping Literature with Networks: An Application to Redistricting pp. 669-678 Downloads
Adeline Lo, Devin Judge-Lord, Kyler Hudson and Kenneth R. Mayer

Volume 31, issue 3, 2023

Implementing Partisan Symmetry: Problems and Paradoxes pp. 305-324 Downloads
Daryl DeFord, Natasha Dhamankar, Moon Duchin, Varun Gupta, Mackenzie McPike, Gabe Schoenbach and Ki Wan Sim
The Essential Role of Statistical Inference in Evaluating Electoral Systems: A Response to DeFord et al pp. 325-331 Downloads
Jonathan N. Katz, Gary King and Elizabeth Rosenblatt
Implementing Partisan Symmetry: A Response to a Response pp. 332-334 Downloads
Daryl DeFord, Natasha Dhamankar, Moon Duchin, Varun Gupta, Mackenzie McPike, Gabe Schoenbach and Ki Wan Sim
Rejoinder: Concluding Remarks on Scholarly Communications pp. 335-336 Downloads
Jonathan N. Katz, Gary King and Elizabeth Rosenblatt
Out of One, Many: Using Language Models to Simulate Human Samples pp. 337-351 Downloads
Lisa P. Argyle, Ethan C. Busby, Nancy Fulda, Joshua R. Gubler, Christopher Rytting and David Wingate
Non-Separable Preferences in the Statistical Analysis of Roll Call Votes pp. 352-365 Downloads
Garret Binding and Lukas F. Stoetzer
Cross-Lingual Classification of Political Texts Using Multilingual Sentence Embeddings pp. 366-379 Downloads
Hauke Licht
Multiple Hypothesis Testing in Conjoint Analysis pp. 380-395 Downloads
Guoer Liu and Yuki Shiraito
The Ideologies of Organized Interests and Amicus Curiae Briefs: Large-Scale, Social Network Imputation of Ideal Points pp. 396-413 Downloads
Sahar Abi-Hassan, Janet M. Box-Steffensmeier, Dino P. Christenson, Aaron Kaufman and Brian Libgober
Detecting and Correcting for Separation in Strategic Choice Models pp. 414-429 Downloads
Casey Crisman-Cox, Olga Gasparyan and Curtis S. Signorino
A Nonparametric Bayesian Model for Detecting Differential Item Functioning: An Application to Political Representation in the US pp. 430-447 Downloads
Yuki Shiraito, James Lo and Santiago Olivella
Learning from Null Effects: A Bottom-Up Approach pp. 448-456 Downloads
Alrababa’h, Ala’, Scott Williamson, Andrea Dillon, Jens Hainmueller, Dominik Hangartner, Michael Hotard, David D. Laitin, Duncan Lawrence and Jeremy Weinstein
Hierarchically Regularized Entropy Balancing pp. 457-464 Downloads
Yiqing Xu and Eddie Yang
Validating the Applicability of Bayesian Inference with Surname and Geocoding to Congressional Redistricting pp. 465-471 Downloads
Kevin DeLuca and John A. Curiel
Contagion, Confounding, and Causality: Confronting the Three C’s of Observational Political Networks Research pp. 472-479 Downloads
Medha Uppala and Bruce A. Desmarais

Volume 31, issue 2, 2023

Blocks as Geographic Discontinuities: The Effect of Polling-Place Assignment on Voting pp. 165-180 Downloads
Sabina Tomkins, Keniel Yao, Johann Gaebler, Tobias Konitzer, David Rothschild, Marc Meredith and Sharad Goel
Quantifying Bias from Measurable and Unmeasurable Confounders Across Three Domains of Individual Determinants of Political Preferences pp. 181-194 Downloads
Rafael Ahlskog and Sven Oskarsson
Using Multiple Pretreatment Periods to Improve Difference-in-Differences and Staggered Adoption Designs pp. 195-212 Downloads
Naoki Egami and Soichiro Yamauchi
Taking Distributions Seriously: On the Interpretation of the Estimates of Interactive Nonlinear Models pp. 213-234 Downloads
Andrei Zhirnov, Mert Moral and Evgeny Sedashov
Sentiment is Not Stance: Target-Aware Opinion Classification for Political Text Analysis pp. 235-256 Downloads
Samuel E. Bestvater and Burt L. Monroe
Change-Point Detection and Regularization in Time Series Cross-Sectional Data Analysis pp. 257-277 Downloads
Jong Hee Park and Soichiro Yamauchi
The Consequences of Model Misspecification for the Estimation of Nonlinear Interaction Effects pp. 278-287 Downloads
Janina Beiser-McGrath and Liam F. Beiser-McGrath
Geographic Boundaries and Local Economic Conditions Matter for Views of the Economy pp. 288-294 Downloads
James Bisbee and Jan Zilinsky
Balance as a Pre-Estimation Test for Time Series Analysis pp. 295-304 Downloads
Mark Pickup and Paul M. Kellstedt

Volume 31, issue 1, 2023

Statistically Valid Inferences from Differentially Private Data Releases, with Application to the Facebook URLs Dataset pp. 1-21 Downloads
Georgina Evans and Gary King
Party Positions from Wikipedia Classifications of Party Ideology pp. 22-41 Downloads
Michael Herrmann and Holger Döring
An Improved Method of Automated Nonparametric Content Analysis for Social Science pp. 42-58 Downloads
Connor T. Jerzak, Gary King and Anton Strezhnev
Cross-Domain Topic Classification for Political Texts pp. 59-80 Downloads
Moritz Osnabrügge, Elliott Ash and Massimo Morelli
Human Rights Violations in Space: Assessing the External Validity of Machine-Geocoded versus Human-Geocoded Data pp. 81-97 Downloads
Logan Stundal, Benjamin E. Bagozzi, John R. Freeman and Jennifer S. Holmes
Identification of Preferences in Forced-Choice Conjoint Experiments: Reassessing the Quantity of Interest pp. 98-112 Downloads
Flavien Ganter
Polls, Context, and Time: A Dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian Forecasting Model for US Senate Elections pp. 113-133 Downloads
Yehu Chen, Roman Garnett and Jacob M. Montgomery
A Bias-Corrected Estimator for the Crosswise Model with Inattentive Respondents pp. 134-148 Downloads
Yuki Atsusaka and Randolph T. Stevenson
Listwise Deletion in High Dimensions pp. 149-155 Downloads
J. Sophia Wang and P. M. Aronow
Proportionally Less Difficult?: Reevaluating Keele’s “Proportionally Difficult” pp. 156-163 Downloads
Shawna K. Metzger

Volume 30, issue S1, 2022

Introduction to the Special Issue: Innovations and Current Challenges in Experimental Methods pp. S3-S7 Downloads
Libby Jenke

Volume 30, issue 4, 2022

Multi-Label Prediction for Political Text-as-Data pp. 463-480 Downloads
Aaron Erlich, Stefano G. Dantas, Benjamin E. Bagozzi, Daniel Berliner and Brian Palmer-Rubin
Placebo Selection in Survey Experiments: An Agnostic Approach pp. 481-494 Downloads
Ethan Porter and Yamil R. Velez
Reducing Model Misspecification and Bias in the Estimation of Interactions pp. 495-514 Downloads
Matthew Blackwell and Michael P. Olson
Generative Dynamics of Supreme Court Citations: Analysis with a New Statistical Network Model pp. 515-534 Downloads
Christian S. Schmid, Ted Hsuan Yun Chen and Bruce A. Desmarais
Does Conjoint Analysis Mitigate Social Desirability Bias? pp. 535-549 Downloads
Yusaku Horiuchi, Zachary Markovich and Teppei Yamamoto
Racing the Clock: Using Response Time as a Proxy for Attentiveness on Self-Administered Surveys pp. 550-569 Downloads
Blair Read, Lukas Wolters and Adam J. Berinsky
Topics, Concepts, and Measurement: A Crowdsourced Procedure for Validating Topics as Measures pp. 570-589 Downloads
Luwei Ying, Jacob M. Montgomery and Brandon M. Stewart
Adaptive Fuzzy String Matching: How to Merge Datasets with Only One (Messy) Identifying Field pp. 590-596 Downloads
Aaron Kaufman and Aja Klevs
Choosing Imputation Models pp. 597-605 Downloads
Moritz Marbach

Volume 30, issue 3, 2022

How Populist are Parties? Measuring Degrees of Populism in Party Manifestos Using Supervised Machine Learning pp. 311-327 Downloads
Jessica Di Cocco and Bernardo Monechi
The Structure of Political Choices: Distinguishing Between Constraint and Multidimensionality pp. 328-345 Downloads
William Marble and Matthew Tyler
Large-Scale Ideal Point Estimation pp. 346-363 Downloads
Michael Peress
Optimizing the Measurement of Sexism in Political Surveys pp. 364-380 Downloads
Brian F. Schaffner
The Misreporting Trade-Off Between List Experiments and Direct Questions in Practice: Partition Validation Evidence from Two Countries pp. 381-402 Downloads
Patrick M. Kuhn and Nick Vivyan
Partisan Dislocation: A Precinct-Level Measure of Representation and Gerrymandering pp. 403-425 Downloads
Daryl R. DeFord, Nicholas Eubank and Jonathan Rodden
Assessing Data Quality: An Approach and An Application pp. 426-449 Downloads
Kelly McMann, Daniel Pemstein, Brigitte Seim, Jan Teorell and Staffan Lindberg
Why We Should Use the Gini Coefficient to Assess Punctuated Equilibrium Theory pp. 450-455 Downloads
Constantin Kaplaner and Yves Steinebach
Minmaxing of Bayesian Improved Surname Geocoding and Geography Level Ups in Predicting Race pp. 456-462 Downloads
Jesse T. Clark, John A. Curiel and Tyler S. Steelman

Volume 30, issue 2, 2022

Getting Time Right: Using Cox Models and Probabilities to Interpret Binary Panel Data pp. 151-166 Downloads
Shawna K. Metzger and Benjamin T. Jones
A Permutation-Based Changepoint Technique for Monitoring Effect Sizes pp. 167-178 Downloads
Daniel Kent, James D. Wilson and Skyler J. Cranmer
The MIDAS Touch: Accurate and Scalable Missing-Data Imputation with Deep Learning pp. 179-196 Downloads
Ranjit Lall and Thomas Robinson
How Much Does the Cardinal Treatment of Ordinal Variables Matter? An Empirical Investigation pp. 197-213 Downloads
Jeffrey Bloem
Diplomatic Relations in a Virtual World pp. 214-235 Downloads
Aaron Bramson, Kevin Hoefman, Koen Schoors and Jan Ryckebusch
Estimating and Using Individual Marginal Component Effects from Conjoint Experiments pp. 236-249 Downloads
Kirill Zhirkov
What Makes Party Systems Different? A Principal Component Analysis of 17 Advanced Democracies 1970–2013 pp. 250-268 Downloads
Zsuzsanna B. Magyar
A Bayesian Alternative to Synthetic Control for Comparative Case Studies pp. 269-288 Downloads
Xun Pang, Licheng Liu and Yiqing Xu
A Text-As-Data Approach for Using Open-Ended Responses as Manipulation Checks pp. 289-297 Downloads
Jeffrey Ziegler
Understanding Bayesianism: Fundamentals for Process Tracers pp. 298-305 Downloads
Andrew Bennett, Andrew E. Charman and Tasha Fairfield
Return to the Scene of the Crime: Revisiting Process Tracing, Bayesianism, and Murder pp. 306-310 Downloads
Sherry Zaks

Volume 30, issue 1, 2022

Spikes and Variance: Using Google Trends to Detect and Forecast Protests pp. 1-18 Downloads
Joan C. Timoneda and Erik Wibbels
Improving the External Validity of Conjoint Analysis: The Essential Role of Profile Distribution pp. 19-45 Downloads
Brandon de la Cuesta, Naoki Egami and Kosuke Imai
Understanding, Choosing, and Unifying Multilevel and Fixed Effect Approaches pp. 46-65 Downloads
Chad Hazlett and Leonard Wainstein
Accounting for Skewed or One-Sided Measurement Error in the Dependent Variable pp. 66-88 Downloads
Daniel Millimet and Christopher Parmeter
Combining Outcome-Based and Preference-Based Matching: A Constrained Priority Mechanism pp. 89-112 Downloads
Avidit Acharya, Kirk Bansak and Jens Hainmueller
Learning to See: Convolutional Neural Networks for the Analysis of Social Science Data pp. 113-131 Downloads
Michelle Torres and Francisco Cantú
Nonignorable Attrition in Pairwise Randomized Experiments pp. 132-141 Downloads
Kentaro Fukumoto
Do Name-Based Treatments Violate Information Equivalence? Evidence from a Correspondence Audit Experiment pp. 142-148 Downloads
Michelangelo Landgrave and Nicholas Weller
Using Motion Detection to Measure Social Polarization in the U.S. House of Representatives – CORRIGENDUM pp. 149-149 Downloads
Bryce J. Dietrich
Page updated 2023-09-27