Political Analysis

1999 - 2023

From Cambridge University Press
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Volume 31, issue 4, 2023

Introducing an Interpretable Deep Learning Approach to Domain-Specific Dictionary Creation: A Use Case for Conflict Prediction pp. 481-499

Sonja Häffner, Martin Hofer, Maximilian Nagl and Julian Walterskirchen

Using Conjoint Experiments to Analyze Election Outcomes: The Essential Role of the Average Marginal Component Effect pp. 500-518

Kirk Bansak, Jens Hainmueller, Daniel J. Hopkins and Teppei Yamamoto

Ordered Beta Regression: A Parsimonious, Well-Fitting Model for Continuous Data with Lower and Upper Bounds pp. 519-536

Robert Kubinec

Measuring Swing Voters with a Supervised Machine Learning Ensemble pp. 537-553

Christopher Hare and Mikayla Kutsuris

Automated Coding of Political Campaign Advertisement Videos: An Empirical Validation Study pp. 554-574

Alexander Tarr, June Hwang and Kosuke Imai

Acquiescence Bias Inflates Estimates of Conspiratorial Beliefs and Political Misperceptions pp. 575-590

Seth J. Hill and Margaret E. Roberts

When Correlation Is Not Enough: Validating Populism Scores from Supervised Machine-Learning Models pp. 591-605

Michael Jankowski and Robert A. Huber

Ends Against the Middle: Measuring Latent Traits when Opposites Respond the Same Way for Antithetical Reasons pp. 606-625

JBrandon Duck-Mayr and Jacob Montgomery

Creating and Comparing Dictionary, Word Embedding, and Transformer-Based Models to Measure Discrete Emotions in German Political Text pp. 626-641

Tobias Widmann and Maximilian Wich

Bridging the Grade Gap: Reducing Assessment Bias in a Multi-Grader Class pp. 642-650

Sean Kates, Tine Paulsen, Sidak Yntiso and Joshua A. Tucker

Recalibration of Predicted Probabilities Using the “Logit Shift”: Why Does It Work, and When Can It Be Expected to Work Well? pp. 651-661

Evan T. R. Rosenman, Cory McCartan and Santiago Olivella

Topic Classification for Political Texts with Pretrained Language Models pp. 662-668

Yu Wang

Mapping Literature with Networks: An Application to Redistricting pp. 669-678

Adeline Lo, Devin Judge-Lord, Kyler Hudson and Kenneth R. Mayer

Volume 31, issue 3, 2023

Implementing Partisan Symmetry: Problems and Paradoxes pp. 305-324

Daryl DeFord, Natasha Dhamankar, Moon Duchin, Varun Gupta, Mackenzie McPike, Gabe Schoenbach and Ki Wan Sim

The Essential Role of Statistical Inference in Evaluating Electoral Systems: A Response to DeFord et al pp. 325-331

Jonathan N. Katz, Gary King and Elizabeth Rosenblatt

Implementing Partisan Symmetry: A Response to a Response pp. 332-334

Daryl DeFord, Natasha Dhamankar, Moon Duchin, Varun Gupta, Mackenzie McPike, Gabe Schoenbach and Ki Wan Sim

Rejoinder: Concluding Remarks on Scholarly Communications pp. 335-336

Jonathan N. Katz, Gary King and Elizabeth Rosenblatt

Out of One, Many: Using Language Models to Simulate Human Samples pp. 337-351

Lisa P. Argyle, Ethan C. Busby, Nancy Fulda, Joshua R. Gubler, Christopher Rytting and David Wingate

Non-Separable Preferences in the Statistical Analysis of Roll Call Votes pp. 352-365

Garret Binding and Lukas F. Stoetzer

Cross-Lingual Classification of Political Texts Using Multilingual Sentence Embeddings pp. 366-379

Hauke Licht

Multiple Hypothesis Testing in Conjoint Analysis pp. 380-395

Guoer Liu and Yuki Shiraito

The Ideologies of Organized Interests and Amicus Curiae Briefs: Large-Scale, Social Network Imputation of Ideal Points pp. 396-413

Sahar Abi-Hassan, Janet M. Box-Steffensmeier, Dino P. Christenson, Aaron Kaufman and Brian Libgober

Detecting and Correcting for Separation in Strategic Choice Models pp. 414-429

Casey Crisman-Cox, Olga Gasparyan and Curtis S. Signorino

A Nonparametric Bayesian Model for Detecting Differential Item Functioning: An Application to Political Representation in the US pp. 430-447

Yuki Shiraito, James Lo and Santiago Olivella

Learning from Null Effects: A Bottom-Up Approach pp. 448-456

Alrababa’h, Ala’, Scott Williamson, Andrea Dillon, Jens Hainmueller, Dominik Hangartner, Michael Hotard, David D. Laitin, Duncan Lawrence and Jeremy Weinstein

Hierarchically Regularized Entropy Balancing pp. 457-464

Yiqing Xu and Eddie Yang

Validating the Applicability of Bayesian Inference with Surname and Geocoding to Congressional Redistricting pp. 465-471

Kevin DeLuca and John A. Curiel

Contagion, Confounding, and Causality: Confronting the Three C’s of Observational Political Networks Research pp. 472-479

Medha Uppala and Bruce A. Desmarais

Volume 31, issue 2, 2023

Blocks as Geographic Discontinuities: The Effect of Polling-Place Assignment on Voting pp. 165-180

Sabina Tomkins, Keniel Yao, Johann Gaebler, Tobias Konitzer, David Rothschild, Marc Meredith and Sharad Goel

Quantifying Bias from Measurable and Unmeasurable Confounders Across Three Domains of Individual Determinants of Political Preferences pp. 181-194

Rafael Ahlskog and Sven Oskarsson

Using Multiple Pretreatment Periods to Improve Difference-in-Differences and Staggered Adoption Designs pp. 195-212

Naoki Egami and Soichiro Yamauchi

Taking Distributions Seriously: On the Interpretation of the Estimates of Interactive Nonlinear Models pp. 213-234

Andrei Zhirnov, Mert Moral and Evgeny Sedashov

Sentiment is Not Stance: Target-Aware Opinion Classification for Political Text Analysis pp. 235-256

Samuel E. Bestvater and Burt L. Monroe

Change-Point Detection and Regularization in Time Series Cross-Sectional Data Analysis pp. 257-277

Jong Hee Park and Soichiro Yamauchi

The Consequences of Model Misspecification for the Estimation of Nonlinear Interaction Effects pp. 278-287

Janina Beiser-McGrath and Liam F. Beiser-McGrath

Geographic Boundaries and Local Economic Conditions Matter for Views of the Economy pp. 288-294

James Bisbee and Jan Zilinsky

Balance as a Pre-Estimation Test for Time Series Analysis pp. 295-304

Mark Pickup and Paul M. Kellstedt

Volume 31, issue 1, 2023

Statistically Valid Inferences from Differentially Private Data Releases, with Application to the Facebook URLs Dataset pp. 1-21

Georgina Evans and Gary King

Party Positions from Wikipedia Classifications of Party Ideology pp. 22-41

Michael Herrmann and Holger Döring

An Improved Method of Automated Nonparametric Content Analysis for Social Science pp. 42-58

Connor T. Jerzak, Gary King and Anton Strezhnev

Cross-Domain Topic Classification for Political Texts pp. 59-80

Moritz Osnabrügge, Elliott Ash and Massimo Morelli

Human Rights Violations in Space: Assessing the External Validity of Machine-Geocoded versus Human-Geocoded Data pp. 81-97

Logan Stundal, Benjamin E. Bagozzi, John R. Freeman and Jennifer S. Holmes

Identification of Preferences in Forced-Choice Conjoint Experiments: Reassessing the Quantity of Interest pp. 98-112

Flavien Ganter

Polls, Context, and Time: A Dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian Forecasting Model for US Senate Elections pp. 113-133

Yehu Chen, Roman Garnett and Jacob M. Montgomery

A Bias-Corrected Estimator for the Crosswise Model with Inattentive Respondents pp. 134-148

Yuki Atsusaka and Randolph T. Stevenson

Listwise Deletion in High Dimensions pp. 149-155

J. Sophia Wang and P. M. Aronow

Proportionally Less Difficult?: Reevaluating Keele’s “Proportionally Difficult” pp. 156-163

Shawna K. Metzger

Volume 30, issue S1, 2022

Introduction to the Special Issue: Innovations and Current Challenges in Experimental Methods pp. S3-S7

Libby Jenke

Volume 30, issue 4, 2022

Multi-Label Prediction for Political Text-as-Data pp. 463-480

Aaron Erlich, Stefano G. Dantas, Benjamin E. Bagozzi, Daniel Berliner and Brian Palmer-Rubin

Placebo Selection in Survey Experiments: An Agnostic Approach pp. 481-494

Ethan Porter and Yamil R. Velez

Reducing Model Misspecification and Bias in the Estimation of Interactions pp. 495-514

Matthew Blackwell and Michael P. Olson

Generative Dynamics of Supreme Court Citations: Analysis with a New Statistical Network Model pp. 515-534

Christian S. Schmid, Ted Hsuan Yun Chen and Bruce A. Desmarais

Does Conjoint Analysis Mitigate Social Desirability Bias? pp. 535-549

Yusaku Horiuchi, Zachary Markovich and Teppei Yamamoto

Racing the Clock: Using Response Time as a Proxy for Attentiveness on Self-Administered Surveys pp. 550-569

Blair Read, Lukas Wolters and Adam J. Berinsky

Topics, Concepts, and Measurement: A Crowdsourced Procedure for Validating Topics as Measures pp. 570-589

Luwei Ying, Jacob M. Montgomery and Brandon M. Stewart

Adaptive Fuzzy String Matching: How to Merge Datasets with Only One (Messy) Identifying Field pp. 590-596

Aaron Kaufman and Aja Klevs

Choosing Imputation Models pp. 597-605

Moritz Marbach

Volume 30, issue 3, 2022

How Populist are Parties? Measuring Degrees of Populism in Party Manifestos Using Supervised Machine Learning pp. 311-327

Jessica Di Cocco and Bernardo Monechi

The Structure of Political Choices: Distinguishing Between Constraint and Multidimensionality pp. 328-345

William Marble and Matthew Tyler

Large-Scale Ideal Point Estimation pp. 346-363

Michael Peress

Optimizing the Measurement of Sexism in Political Surveys pp. 364-380

Brian F. Schaffner

The Misreporting Trade-Off Between List Experiments and Direct Questions in Practice: Partition Validation Evidence from Two Countries pp. 381-402

Patrick M. Kuhn and Nick Vivyan

Partisan Dislocation: A Precinct-Level Measure of Representation and Gerrymandering pp. 403-425

Daryl R. DeFord, Nicholas Eubank and Jonathan Rodden

Assessing Data Quality: An Approach and An Application pp. 426-449

Kelly McMann, Daniel Pemstein, Brigitte Seim, Jan Teorell and Staffan Lindberg

Why We Should Use the Gini Coefficient to Assess Punctuated Equilibrium Theory pp. 450-455

Constantin Kaplaner and Yves Steinebach

Minmaxing of Bayesian Improved Surname Geocoding and Geography Level Ups in Predicting Race pp. 456-462

Jesse T. Clark, John A. Curiel and Tyler S. Steelman

Volume 30, issue 2, 2022

Getting Time Right: Using Cox Models and Probabilities to Interpret Binary Panel Data pp. 151-166

Shawna K. Metzger and Benjamin T. Jones

A Permutation-Based Changepoint Technique for Monitoring Effect Sizes pp. 167-178

Daniel Kent, James D. Wilson and Skyler J. Cranmer

The MIDAS Touch: Accurate and Scalable Missing-Data Imputation with Deep Learning pp. 179-196

Ranjit Lall and Thomas Robinson

How Much Does the Cardinal Treatment of Ordinal Variables Matter? An Empirical Investigation pp. 197-213

Jeffrey Bloem

Diplomatic Relations in a Virtual World pp. 214-235

Aaron Bramson, Kevin Hoefman, Koen Schoors and Jan Ryckebusch

Estimating and Using Individual Marginal Component Effects from Conjoint Experiments pp. 236-249

Kirill Zhirkov

What Makes Party Systems Different? A Principal Component Analysis of 17 Advanced Democracies 1970–2013 pp. 250-268

Zsuzsanna B. Magyar

A Bayesian Alternative to Synthetic Control for Comparative Case Studies pp. 269-288

Xun Pang, Licheng Liu and Yiqing Xu

A Text-As-Data Approach for Using Open-Ended Responses as Manipulation Checks pp. 289-297

Jeffrey Ziegler

Understanding Bayesianism: Fundamentals for Process Tracers pp. 298-305

Andrew Bennett, Andrew E. Charman and Tasha Fairfield

Return to the Scene of the Crime: Revisiting Process Tracing, Bayesianism, and Murder pp. 306-310

Sherry Zaks

Volume 30, issue 1, 2022

Spikes and Variance: Using Google Trends to Detect and Forecast Protests pp. 1-18

Joan C. Timoneda and Erik Wibbels

Improving the External Validity of Conjoint Analysis: The Essential Role of Profile Distribution pp. 19-45

Brandon de la Cuesta, Naoki Egami and Kosuke Imai

Understanding, Choosing, and Unifying Multilevel and Fixed Effect Approaches pp. 46-65

Chad Hazlett and Leonard Wainstein

Accounting for Skewed or One-Sided Measurement Error in the Dependent Variable pp. 66-88

Daniel Millimet and Christopher Parmeter

Combining Outcome-Based and Preference-Based Matching: A Constrained Priority Mechanism pp. 89-112

Avidit Acharya, Kirk Bansak and Jens Hainmueller

Learning to See: Convolutional Neural Networks for the Analysis of Social Science Data pp. 113-131

Michelle Torres and Francisco Cantú

Nonignorable Attrition in Pairwise Randomized Experiments pp. 132-141

Kentaro Fukumoto

Do Name-Based Treatments Violate Information Equivalence? Evidence from a Correspondence Audit Experiment pp. 142-148

Michelangelo Landgrave and Nicholas Weller

Using Motion Detection to Measure Social Polarization in the U.S. House of Representatives – CORRIGENDUM pp. 149-149

Bryce J. Dietrich