Bias in Self-reported Voting and How it Distorts Turnout Models: Disentangling Nonresponse Bias and Overreporting Among Danish Voters
Jens Olav Dahlgaard,
Jonas Hedegaard Hansen,
Kasper M. Hansen and
Political Analysis, 2019, vol. 27, issue 4, 590-598
Most nonexperimental studies of voter turnout rely on survey data. However, surveys overestimate turnout because of (1)Â nonresponse bias and (2)Â overreporting. We investigate this possibility using a rich dataset of Danish voters, which includes validated turnout indicators from administrative data for both respondents and nonrespondents, as well as respondentsâ€™ self-reported voting from the Danish National Election Studies. We show that both nonresponse bias and overreporting contribute significantly to overestimations of turnout. Further, we use covariates from the administrative data available for both respondents and nonrespondents to demonstrate that both factors also significantly bias the predictors of turnout. In our case, we find that nonresponse bias and overreporting masks a gender gap of two and a half percentage points in womenâ€™s favor as well as a gap of 25 percentage points in ethnic Danesâ€™ favor compared with Danes of immigrant heritage.
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