Nonignorable Attrition in Pairwise Randomized Experiments

Kentaro Fukumoto

Political Analysis, 2022, vol. 30, issue 1, 132-141

Abstract: In pairwise randomized experiments, what if the outcomes of some units are missing? One solution is to delete missing units (the unitwise deletion estimator, UDE). If attrition is nonignorable, however, the UDE is biased. Instead, scholars might employ the pairwise deletion estimator (PDE), which deletes the pairmates of missing units as well. This study proves that the PDE can be biased but more efficient than the UDE and, surprisingly, the conventional variance estimator of the PDE is unbiased in a super-population. I also propose a new variance estimator for the UDE and argue that it is easier to interpret the PDE as a causal effect than the UDE. To conclude, I recommend the PDE rather than the UDE.

Date: 2022
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