The Relationship Between Food Production Prices And Inflation In Bulgaria

Lachezar Borisov
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Lachezar Borisov: Higher School of Insurance and Finance

Economic Archive, 2022, issue 1 Year 2022, 34-43

Abstract: The study aims to find relationships between the total producer price index for food products and the harmonized consumer price index for food products in Bulgaria. The analysis of the relationships aims to reveal the impact of producer prices on the final consumer price of food products, as well as the period in which the strongest relationships are present. The sharp rise in food prices in Bulgaria, the macroeconomic forecasts for the continuation of this trend and their impact on the welfare of citizens make it necessary to analyse various interrelationships that serve the study and forecasting of certain processes in the country. The study concludes that there is a causal relationship between the total producer price index for food products and the harmonized consumer price index for food products in Bulgaria. In contrast to the general case where inflationary processes are transmitted from producer prices to consumer prices with a lag of 5 months, in the case of food products this happens within the same month.

Keywords: producer price index for food products; consumer price index for food products; inflation; forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C52 E31 E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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