Decline in Human Cancer Incidence Rates at Old Ages: Age-Period-Cohort Considerations

Konstantin Arbeev, Anatoli Yashin, Svetlana Ukraintseva and Lyubov S. Arbeeva
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Konstantin Arbeev: Duke University
Anatoli Yashin: Duke University
Svetlana Ukraintseva: Duke University
Lyubov S. Arbeeva: Ulyanovsk State University

Demographic Research, 2005, vol. 12, issue 11, 273-300

Abstract: Analysis of age-specific trajectories of cancer incidence rates for all sites combined (data source: International Agency for Research on Cancer) reveals a leveling-off and decline of the rates at old ages in different countries and time periods. We apply a non-linear age-period-cohort model (James and Segal 1982) to obtain declining cancer incidence rates at old ages. The age effects are represented by a power function of age in accordance with a multistage model of carcinogenesis (Armitage and Doll 1954). Applications to cancer incidence in England and Wales, Japan (Miyagi prefecture) and the USA (New York State and San Francisco) illustrate the approach. Further topics of research are discussed.

Keywords: cancer; age-period-cohort models; incidence; multistage theory (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J1 Z0 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2005
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:dem:demres:v:12:y:2005:i:11

DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2005.12.11

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