Modelling the demographic impact of HIV/AIDS in South Africa and the likely impact of interventions

Leigh F. Johnson and Rob Dorrington
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Leigh F. Johnson: University of Cape Town (UCT)
Rob Dorrington: University of Cape Town (UCT)

Demographic Research, 2006, vol. 14, issue 22, 541-574

Abstract: This paper describes an approach to incorporating the impact of HIV/AIDS and the effects of HIV/AIDS prevention and treatment programmes into a cohort component projection model of the South African population. The modelled HIV-positive population is divided into clinical and treatment stages, and it is demonstrated that the age profile and morbidity profile of the HIV-positive population is changing significantly over time. HIV/AIDS is projected to have a substantial demographic impact in South Africa. Prevention programmes - social marketing, voluntary counselling and testing, prevention of mother-to-child transmission and improved treatment for sexually transmitted diseases - are unlikely to reduce AIDS mortality significantly in the short term. However, more immediate reductions in mortality can be achieved when antiretroviral treatment is introduced.

Keywords: South Africa; simulation; demographic impact; HIV/AIDS prevention; antiretroviral therapy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J1 Z0 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2006
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:dem:demres:v:14:y:2006:i:22

DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2006.14.22

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