Sexual behaviour patterns in South Africa and their association with the spread of HIV: insights from a mathematical model

Leigh Johnson, Rob Dorrington, Debbie Bradshaw, Victoria Pillay- Van Wyk and Thomas Rehle
Additional contact information
Leigh Johnson: University of Cape Town (UCT)
Rob Dorrington: University of Cape Town (UCT)
Debbie Bradshaw: South African Medical Research Council (SAMRC)
Victoria Pillay- Van Wyk: Human Sciences Research Council (HSRC)
Thomas Rehle: Human Sciences Research Council (HSRC)

Demographic Research, 2009, vol. 21, issue 11, 289-340

Abstract: This paper aims to quantify the effects of different types of sexual risk behaviour on the spread of HIV in South Africa. A mathematical model is developed to simulate changes in numbers of sexual partners, changes in marital status, changes in commercial sex activity and changes in the frequency of unprotected sex over the life course. This is extended to allow for the transmission of HIV, and the model is fitted to South African HIV prevalence data and sexual behaviour data. Results suggest that concurrent partnerships and other non-spousal partnerships are major drivers of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in South Africa.

Keywords: HIV/AIDS; South Africa; sexual behavior; simulation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J1 Z0 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:dem:demres:v:21:y:2009:i:11

DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2009.21.11

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