Modelling the constraints on consanguineous marriage when fertility declines

Bilal Barakat and Stuart Gietel-Basten
Additional contact information
Bilal Barakat: Österreichische Akademie der Wissenschaften
Stuart Gietel-Basten: Hong Kong University of Science and Technology

Demographic Research, 2014, vol. 30, issue 9, 277-312

Abstract: Background: Consanguinity - or marriage between close blood relatives, in particular first cousins - is widely practised and even socially encouraged in many countries. However, in the face of fertility transition where the number of cousins eligible to marry declines, how might such constraints on consanguinity develop in the future? Objective: Numerous studies have stated that the practice cannot continue at present levels and in ist present form in the face of fertility transition. However, the future impact of fertility transition on availability of cousins to marry has not yet been quantified. Methods: We perform a simulation exercise using past and projected net reproduction rates (NRRs) derived from the UN. We calculate the average number of cousins of the opposite sex as a function of the average number of children, the average probability of an individual having at least one eligible paternal cousin of the opposite sex, and conclude with an examination of constraints on consanguineous marriage in selected countries under different fertility assumptions. Results: Current and projected fertility levels in Middle Eastern countries will create challenging constraints on the custom once today's birth cohorts reach marriageable age. Conclusions: Either consanguinity prevalence will diminish significantly, or the institution will be forced to adapt by becoming more coercive in the face of reduced choice or at the expense of other social preferences (such as for an older groom wedding a younger bride). Fertility decline affects prospects for social change not only through its well-known consequences for mothers but also through shaping marriage conditions for the next generation.

Keywords: fertility transition; modelling; consanguineous marriage (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J1 Z0 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol30/9/30-9.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:dem:demres:v:30:y:2014:i:9

DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2014.30.9

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Demographic Research from Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Editorial Office ().