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Post-transitional regional fertility in Romania

Danut Jemna and Mihaela David

Demographic Research, 2018, vol. 38, issue 57, 1733-1776

Abstract: Background: The slight variations in the main demographic indicators, particularly in fertility, recorded after 1995 suggest that the process of demographic transition has reached its final stage. Despite this stabilization at national level, significant differences in the evolution of fertility are found among the eight development regions of Romania. Objective: The aim of this article is to analyze empirically the specific dynamics of this phenomenon in relation to its main demographic and socioeconomic determinants. Methods: Using regional data registered between 1995 and 2015, pooled, fixed effects, and random effects panel models were applied. Results: Our empirical findings highlight that the variations in the total fertility rate are explained, at regional level and within the post-transitional demographic stage, by the changes in female employment rate, urbanization degree, real GDP per capita, marriage rate, and mean age of woman at first birth. Contribution: We consider that the study responds to a real need for research in this field and that the results may provide support for the development, in Romania, of demographic policy strategies at both regional and national levels.

Keywords: regional fertility differentials; demographic transition; posttransition societies; Romania (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J1 Z0 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2018.38.57

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