Probabilistic projection of subnational total fertility rates

Hana Sevcikova, Patrick Gerland and Adrian E. Raftery
Additional contact information
Hana Sevcikova: University of Washington
Patrick Gerland: United Nations Population Division
Adrian E. Raftery: University of Washington

Demographic Research, 2018, vol. 38, issue 60, 1843-1884

Abstract: Background: We consider the problem of probabilistic projection of the total fertility rate (TFR) for subnational regions. Objective: We seek a method that is consistent with the UN’s recently adopted Bayesian method for probabilistic TFR projections for all countries and works well for all countries. Methods: We assess various possible methods using subnational TFR data for 47 countries. Results: We find that the method that performs best in terms of out-of-sample predictive performance and also in terms of reproducing the within-country correlation in TFR is a method that scales each national trajectory from the national predictive posterior distribution by a region-specific scale factor that is allowed to vary slowly over time. Conclusions: Probabilistic projections of TFR for subnational units are best produced by scaling the national projection by a slowly time-varying region-specific scale factor. This supports the hypothesis of Watkins (1990, 1991) that within-country TFR converges over time in response to country-specific factors, and thus extends the Watkins hypothesis to the last 50 years and to a much wider range of countries around the world. Contribution: We have developed a new method for probabilistic projection of subnational TFR that works well and outperforms other methods. This also sheds light on the extent to which within-country TFR converges over time.

Keywords: total fertility rate (TFR); autoregressive model; Bayesian hierarchical model; correlation; subnational projections; scaling model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J1 Z0 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol38/60/38-60.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:dem:demres:v:38:y:2018:i:60

DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2018.38.60

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Demographic Research from Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Editorial Office ().