Is a positive association between female employment and fertility still spurious in developed countries?

Takashi Oshio
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Takashi Oshio: Hitotsubashi University

Demographic Research, 2019, vol. 41, issue 45, 1277-1288

Abstract: Background: The cross-sectional association between female employment and fertility across developed countries turned from negative to positive during the mid-1980s. The conventional view is that the observed positive association is spurious owing to country-specific heterogeneity. Objective: We revisit the validity of this view using recent data up to 2017 from 24 countries belonging to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Methods: Based on the data downloaded from the OECD database, we estimate the time-series association between the female labor force participation rate (FLFP) and total fertility rate (TFR) by fixed-effects regression models, which can control for country-specific heterogeneity. Results: The more recent the data set used, the more likely it is that the time-series correlation will be positive between FLFP and TFR, even after controlling for country-specific heterogeneity. We also observe that public spending on families, especially in the form of benefits in kind, starts increasing once FLFP becomes sufficiently high. Conclusions: A positive correlation between female employment and fertility in developed countries is no longer attributable to country-specific heterogeneity. The results are supportive of the view that higher female employment can make socioinstitutional contexts more favorable for childbearing, leading to a positive association between FLFP and TFR. Contribution: This study underscored the need for further investigation of the association between female employment and fertility, which is likely to have changed in recent decades.

Keywords: total fertility rate (TFR); female labor force participation; fixed effects; Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J1 Z0 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:dem:demres:v:41:y:2019:i:45

DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2019.41.45

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