The Demographic Echo of War and educational attainment in Soviet Russia

Gordey Yastrebov
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Gordey Yastrebov: Universität zu Köln

Demographic Research, 2021, vol. 45, issue 22, 727-768

Abstract: Background: Research on Western countries has shown that birth cohort size is negatively related to educational attainment. It has offered complementary interpretations of this association – optimal schooling choices versus cohort overcrowding effects – that are difficult to resolve empirically. Objective: To investigate birth cohort size effects on educational attainment taking shape primarily in the context of a socialist society that does not lend itself well to “optimal schooling” interpretations. Methods: I exploit birth cohort size variation generated by the Second World War, a phenomenon known as the Demographic War Echo. Using the Education and Employment Survey for Russia and growth curve modeling, I analyze educational trajectories between ages 18 and 35 among Russian men and women born 1950–1987. Results: Larger cohorts attained less schooling and advanced more slowly in their educational careers. They could partly make up for the disadvantage by studying longer and retreating to part-time education. The disadvantage was larger for women because for men it was partly compensated through a decreased probability of military conscription. Conclusions: Larger birth cohort size disadvantaged young Russians in the process of educational attainment. Given the context, this can be attributed entirely to cohort overcrowding effects. Contribution: This is the first examination of birth cohort size effects on educational attainment in a state socialist context. It is also the first to model these effects on educational trajectories rather than simply attainment and to explore the moderating role of part-time education.

Keywords: cohort size; educational attainment; Soviet Union; Demographic Echo of War (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J1 Z0 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:dem:demres:v:45:y:2021:i:22

DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2021.45.22

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